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Seven Card Stud Opening Hand Selection

In the game of seven card stud poker, correct opening hand selection plays a far more vital role than in Hold´em or Omaha. When you are dealt your hand, you are able to see a maximum of seven other open cards around the table, and this will help you to calculate the odds of finding the missing cards to complete a straight.

It will also show if (say) three kings have been evenly distributed and only one player continues through the betting who was dealt a king. Equally important to note is if there are an unequal distribution of the suits, as this may help or hinder any player chasing a flush.

As a rule of thumb, the following are the only hands which you should really consider getting involved with:-

Three of a kind – This is the strongest starting hand there can be, however you need to be conscious of the rank of your cards (ie 6´s) and the cards that have been dealt to your opponents. If you see another player catch an open double (which does not include a picture card), and then starts to raise, it is likely they have also got a set.

A pair of Jacks or better – Irrespective of whether both cards are hidden (wired) or one is open, you should proceed with this hand once accounting for how many Jacks (or better) you have seen in the open cards of other hands on the table. You should still bet passively until you catch the third card.

Nines or better (wired) – If both the cards which constitute your pair are hidden, this gives you a massive betting advantage if you collect a set or second pair in a later round of betting. If you can catch your second pair early, you may also be on for a full house, and you may want to consider betting into somebody chasing a flush or straight, if the odds of catching the fifth card look good.

Three suited cards – It is worth mentioning that flushes are not that good in Seven Card Stud, so you need to take into consideration the balance of the suits amongst the door cards before committing to a bet. If you have not caught the fourth suited card by the fifth street, your odds of you completing the flush will not represent value.

Three cards to a straight flush – A hand well worth playing, especially if you have high ranking cards amongst them. Look out for key cards landing in other players hands making your straight impossible for you to complete.

Three cards to a straight – Again, you need to think about the rank of the cards in your hand before you bet. As with low flushes, low straights are frequently beaten and you should only play these hands in you can build your straight from the outside, rather than relying on a specific number to fall in the middle.

With any other hand, you should fold, unless by matching the bring in it would leave you in a heads up situation and you can get to subsequent streets economically.

By playing only the strongest starting hands, keeping a careful eye on the open cards and the betting actions of your opponents, you should be able to plot a successful game.

The Hutchinson System Opening Hand Selection

The Expected Value of Chasing a Flush when Heads Up

Many books and articles discussing “Expected Value” and pot odds use a flush as an example of how to determine whether or not you should enter a pot, and with how much strength. It is generally accepted that the odds are in your favour when you have four suited cards post-flop with two or more players going against you, but not always advisable when there is only one opponent against you (as the odds of getting the flush alone are not in your favour). However, when you have two high ranking suited cards in your hand, you have other alternatives that you may also want to consider.

The expected value figure for catching the flush is 39% and is calculated by working out that there are nine unseen cards of your suit in the unseen pack of 47 (“unseen” as they are cards that you cannot se rather than anybody else). To calculate the odds of the fifth suited card being drawn on the turn, you divide 9 by 47 (0.19 or 19%), and if it does not show, the odds of it appearing on the river are then 9 divided by 46 (the remaining unseen cards) which is 0.20 or 20%. By adding the two factors together is how the figure of 39% is arrived at.

Assuming that one of the suited cards in your hand is an ace, you also have the chance of getting top pair to add to the probability of successfully getting the flush. The odds of this happening are worked out by dividing the three unseen aces (assuming one was not flopped) by 47 and 46 respectively to give a total of 13%. If you add this figure to the previously derived 39%, the total probability of catching the flush or top pair is 52% – and marginally in your favour against just one other opponent.

One further point about chasing a flush is when you do not hold top flush and, although you have drawn it on the turn, what the chances are of your playing colleague(s) having a higher card than you either already, or should a further suited card be drawn on the river. To calculate the odds that the other player may be holding a higher flush than you on the turn, you know that there are two suited cards in your hand, two in his and three (from four dealt cards) on the table. This means that in order for him to have any two cards of the same suit, there are seven unseen (say) hearts in a total of 46 unseen cards – or 15%. Then you divide the number of cards higher than your highest ranking heart by 13, and multiply the two answers together. For example, if you had a nine high flush, there are five cards of higher rank (you also deduct any showing in the flop or turn) so you would divide 5 by 13 (38%) and multiply it by 15% = 0.06 or 6%. Therefore there is a 6% (or 16/1) chance that not only does the player in the heads up situation hold two hearts, but his top catd is higher than yours.

To calculate the chance that he holds the ace of hearts or other higher card when a further suited card turns up on the river, simply divide the number of higher hearts that can beat your top card by the total number remaining in the pack. Therefore if you have a nine high flush, the odds of a further heart being drawn on the river and your opponent holding either T/J/Q/K/A of that suit, are 5 divided by 45 (11%) or 1 in 9. The higher your top card is, the longer the odds of his chance of winning.

Of course, there are a number of alternative potential outs for both you and your adversary, and if the other player is in front of you in the betting, you will be able to gauge the potential strength of their hand by the manner of their betting. However, if you take advantage of the combined odds being in your favour, you will win more often than not.

Book Review – Every Hand Revealed by Gus Hansen

Gus Hansen is one of the most unique individuals in the world of poker. Renowned for his unconventional yet successful over-aggressive tactics, Hansen is the only player ever to win four WPT titles and has lifetime tournament winnings of $7.1 million.

His book, “Every Hand Revealed”, was inspired by a comment about there being a lack of books “which convincingly present a viable poker strategy based on practise, not theory”, and in it Hansen humorously chronicles the events from Day 1 of the 2007 Aussie Millions Main Event up until his two hour heads-up session against 19 year old internet whizz Jimmy “Gobboboy” Fricke ends in victory.

The book answers many questions about tournament strategy from a real time perspective, as well as allowing us to understand more about the character of the author and his style of play. Not only does it build up to a compelling climax, but along the way Hansen reveals himself to be a maths nerd – indeed his final chapter is entitled “Stats and Tips for all My Fellow Poker Nerds” – and adds self-depreciatory humour to a book which could have been no more than an ordinary diary of events.

During the tournament, Hansen made notes after each hand he was involved in – all 329 of them – and he expands more on the 21 which he considered to be pivotal to victory from a players point of view rather than just applying the theory. Despite some non-conformist play, there are some very interesting practises explained such as passive post-flop play after aggressive pre-flop betting, targeting players who show specific tendencies and using gut feelings to confound logic. Equally important is his explanation on how the blinds and antes structure in a tournament can affect how you play in relation to your chip stack.

If you have already read the book, or would like a little background about the man and the event before rushing out to buy it, look up Aussie Millions 07 on YouTube. There are a series of videos about the tournament and the highlights of the play, and you will see just how aggressively Hansen plays. Just remember not to try this on the poker tables until you have practised his techniques first!

“Every Hand Revealed” is available from Amazon.com and once you have absorbed Hansen’s methods, you can use them against the great man himself who is regularly seen on Full Tilt Poker.

Paperback: 370 pages

Publisher: Citadel (May 1, 2008)

ISBN-10: 0818407271

ISBN-13: 978-0818407277

Bulldog Poker Players Rule The World

It’s official because we say so! Bulldog Poker players are officially the best in the World, top of the food chain and taking a big bite out of the sharks. Well ok maybe not the best in the World but we are most certainly getting there.

We never go on tilt because were good dogs, reverse tilt however we do enjoy. What do we mean by revense tilt?

Reverse Tilt – Gotta Love It!

Reverse Tilt can be caused by a succession of winning hands. It creates a euphoric feeling of infallibility which then leads you to completely abandon all the skills and techniques that led you to your winning streak in the first place. Thereafter, you are prone to make the most basic mistakes, with the ultimate loss of everything you have already won, and the possibility of chasing those losses whilst on the way to full tilt.

It might seem hard to fathom, but if you go on a tremendous winning streak, it could actually cost you money. The confidence that grows from playing well and having the cards fall in your favour can lead to you betting out of proportion compared with the value of the pot or in relation to your position. This is obviously going to affect your ring games more than your tournament play – although busting out of one tournament when you thought you were doing well, to launch immediately into a rebuy competition when on tilt is not a good idea! Even playing flop limit games when you believe you are invincible can be damaging to your bankroll. It is possible to max out on losing hands a couple of times in succession and, with several players taking you on, the effects could be devastating.

Ring games provide the most potential for turning a fantastic winning session into a loss. Assuming that you joined a table with around 50x the big blind, if you are sitting there after a winning streak, the temptation is to believe that the money is not yours and to bet freely with it. Having 200x the blind or more in front of you is a situation that not many players will be accustomed to in ring games, and being able to handle it is of paramount importance.

By all means, enjoy your wins but try to remain detached emotionally from them. If you have won a significant amount, you should leave the table and start again at a slightly higher level (as good bankroll management would decree). Never kid yourself that had you stayed on that specific table you would have kept on winning, because experience will have taught you that, as beaten players retreat from the table, new ones will join in, and your new associates will just regard your over-ambitious betting actions as those of a loose aggressive player and you will become a target for them.

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